Middle East Under Domination of Force
DIDPress: Le Monde argues that the history of the Middle East is filled with premature declarations of victory. This reminder is essential after Donald Trump, moments after the U.S. bombing of three key Iranian nuclear sites on the night of June 21, hailed it as a “spectacular military success.” Just ten days prior, he had advocated for a diplomatic solution to halt Iran’s nuclear program—a program initiated decades ago by the Iranian government.
This abrupt policy shift can be explained by an unexpected change in the balance of power between the United States and its ally, Israel.
Trump, faced with a fait accompli by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who had decided on June 13 to go to war with Iran—had little choice but to comply, placing Washington’s military might, including bunker-busting bombs exclusive to the U.S., at Israel’s disposal.
The current situation is unprecedented. The Middle East is now gripped by an Israeli-American duopoly, one that effectively rests on Israeli military dominance.
The brutality of this policy reversal is as questionable as it is dubious in its long-term efficacy. Following the attack, Trump warned Tehran: “There will either be peace, or Iran will face a catastrophe far greater than what we’ve witnessed these past eight days.”
Iran still retains significant disruptive capabilities. The U.S. had hoped to deter Iran from retaliating against its vast regional interests—a move that could plunge the region into a catastrophic cycle of tension and conflict. Yet, this is not Tehran’s only option.
Unconditional Surrender
As Trump himself admitted, the U.S. bombings alone cannot definitively end Iran’s nuclear program, though they may have inflicted severe damage.
To completely and sustainably halt the program, the U.S. president has deprived himself of an effective tool: diplomacy—an approach that proved successful in the 2015 nuclear deal, negotiated with multiple nations.
Now, who could believe that the Iranian government would still be willing to negotiate with the U.S.?
In 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the very agreement it had signed, breaking its own promise. Recently, while U.S. officials claimed a desire for dialogue, they simultaneously greenlit a series of targeted Israeli strikes and assassinations against senior Iranian officials.
What will Washington do if Tehran decides to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran is a signatory, while Israel—an undeclared nuclear power—is not? Such a move would terminate the hard-won, yet still critical, access granted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Days earlier, Trump defined his vision of peace in a social media post: “Unconditional surrender.”
The American bombings, a culmination of the law of the jungle and the primacy of brute force in the stead of international law, now seen as a relic of the past, have darkened the horizon, rather than cleared it.