War Tactics; How Iran’s Missiles Penetrated Israel’s Air Defense
DIDPress: Wall Street Journal reported that Iran improved its ability to breach Israel’s air defense systems during the recent “12-day war” by implementing a “trial and error” approach and launching more advanced missiles from multiple deep inland locations.
Missile defense analysts who examined missile debris and open-source data emphasized that Tehran has altered its missile launch tactics, thereby identifying weaknesses in Israel’s defenses. According to experts, Iran began firing longer-range and more advanced missiles from broader areas within its territory, allowing it to better time its attacks and strike diverse targets across Israel—despite claims that most missiles and drones were intercepted.
The report, based on data analyzed by think tanks in Israel and Washington, said: “Although the number of missiles fired decreased, Iran’s success rate increased.”
In the first six days of the war, only 8% of Iranian missiles successfully penetrated Israel’s air defenses. However, this figure rose to 16% in the second half of the conflict. These statistics were provided by the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).
Mora Deitch, head of data analysis at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), clarified that these figures do not include failed launches or interceptions outside Israeli airspace and do not distinguish between unsuccessful interceptions and cases where Israel intentionally allowed missiles to land in uninhabited areas.
JINSA’s analysis indicates that Iran’s most successful attack occurred on June 22—two days before the ceasefire—when 10 out of 27 launched missiles struck targets inside Israel. Ari Cicurel, the institute’s deputy director of foreign policy, said: “The data shows Iran effectively adapted in terms of timing, location, and launch methods.”
Wall Street Journal also noted that Israel’s air defense systems, including the U.S.-developed Iron Dome, are among the most advanced in the world—yet even they are not 100% impenetrable. Raphael Cohen, a senior political analyst at the Pentagon-affiliated RAND Corporation, said: “No missile defense system, even the most advanced, can intercept every missile.”
While the Israeli military claimed a 90-95% interception rate during the war, post-ceasefire data revealed an overall success rate of 86%.
Images of missile debris show that Iran used the “Fattah-1” missile in at least two instances. This hypersonic missile re-enters the atmosphere vertically at 10 times the speed of sound and carries a warhead that splits mid-flight—making interception extremely difficult. Only systems like Arrow 3 and David’s Sling can adjust mid-air to counter such threats.
Iran also shifted tactics—from large-scale nighttime attacks involving over 30 missiles to smaller daytime launches from various bases. Additionally, launch patterns and intervals between strikes became more varied. Analysts noted that as the war dragged on, Israel faced a dwindling supply of interceptors, high operational costs, and had to prioritize intercepting the most threatening missiles.