Steel Diplomacy; Central Asia’s Push Southward Through Afghanistan
DIDPress: In an article for Times of Central Asia, Nikola Miković highlighted the growing ties between Central Asia and Afghanistan, noting that for landlocked Central Asian nations, Afghanistan serves as a critical transit point for the shortest route to the Arabian Sea—an alternative to routes through Russia, China, or the western path across the Caspian Sea.
While the U.S. and its allies remain uneasy about the Taliban’s return to power—given the group’s history of extremism, ongoing repression, and the collapse of the West’s two-decade state-building project—the Taliban are actively courting investment in rail infrastructure to strengthen ties with Global South nations, particularly in Central Asia.
For these landlocked countries, Afghanistan is a strategic gateway, positioned at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, bridging the former Soviet republics with major regional markets like India and Pakistan. This geographic advantage has spurred regional interest in funding Afghanistan rail networks, which could unlock significant geopolitical and geo-economic benefits.
Kazakhstan Takes the Lead
Recent talks between Afghanistani and Kazakh officials, including Kazakh Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu’s visit to Kabul, have focused on rail development. Kazakhstan—Central Asia’s largest economy—has pledged $500 million to construct a 115-kilometer rail line from Torghundi (on the Turkmen-Afghan border) to Herat. A memorandum of understanding has been signed, with detailed feasibility studies expected by winter and construction slated to begin by year’s end.
Kabul hopes to secure similar agreements with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Pakistan. Experts note these five nations will play pivotal roles in Afghanistan’s planned 700-kilometer rail network, which the Taliban frame as a tool to elevate the country’s geopolitical standing.
‘Breaking Isolation’
Muhammad Rahman, the Taliban’s appointed chargé d’affaires in Kazakhstan, said: “This project will reduce our economic isolation and integrate Afghanistan more actively into regional trade.” He argued that rail investors would become stakeholders in Afghan stability, transforming the country into a transit hub.
“Goods will become far cheaper for our people,” Rahman added, emphasizing the line’s potential to export Central Asia’s natural resources globally while bolstering the Middle Corridor westward.
Kazakhstan, rich in minerals, has emerged as Afghanistan’s 10th-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade hitting $545.2 million in 2023 ($527.7 million in Kazakh exports). Its diplomatic overtures may pave the way for other regional players to normalize ties with the Taliban.
Holdouts and Skepticism
Tajikistan remains the sole Central Asian state openly hostile to the Taliban, citing terrorist threats from Afghan-based groups like the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies continue to withhold recognition, condemning the Taliban’s human rights abuses—especially against women and minorities—as underscored by a July 8 UN General Assembly resolution (backed by 116 nations, including all Central Asian states).
The Long Game
Kyrgyz political analyst Mars Sariyev predicts the U.S. will eventually re-engage Afghanistan—not militarily, but economically: “It’s only a matter of time. Washington will leverage Afghanistan to reshape Central Asia’s balance of power, weakening Russia-China ties while expanding its own influence.”
For now, secular modernizers like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are betting on regional integration to stabilize Afghanistan. With talks underway for direct Kabul-Astana flights, Afghanistan’s alignment with its northern neighbors seems set to deepen—testing whether steel can succeed where decades of war failed.