Why Region Opposed to US Return to Afghanistan?

DID Press: A new Poll carried out by DID Press Agency shows that 39 percent of respondents consider “political alignment with Russia and China against the West” as the main reason behind regional opposition to the United States’ return to Afghanistan during the recent “Moscow Format” meeting. The results reflect a shifting balance of power in the region and the efforts of Asian actors to redefine the continent’s security order without Washington’s involvement.

The latest “Moscow Format” meeting, attended by representatives from more than ten regional countries — including Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, India, and the Central Asian states — became a platform for coordinated opposition to the U.S. re-engagement in Afghanistan. According to the DID Press survey, this opposition is not merely a temporary political reaction but rather stems from a new regional power structure and the bitter legacy of two decades of U.S. military presence.

According to the poll, 39 percent of respondents cited alignment with Russian and Chinese positions against Western influence as the primary reason for opposing the U.S. return. This figure underscores the growing strategic convergence among regional powers amid the broader geopolitical competition between East and West. Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, both Moscow and Beijing have repeatedly stressed that any renewed U.S. military or intelligence presence in Afghanistan would pose a direct threat to their national security.

In second place, 28 percent of participants attributed opposition to concerns over a repeat of past U.S. military interventions and security crises. The painful memories of airstrikes, night raids, and the proliferation of armed groups during America’s two-decade presence in Afghanistan remain vivid. Many of Afghanistan’s neighbors fear that Washington’s return could once again trigger instability, mass migration, and a resurgence of extremism.

Additionally, 19 percent of respondents said countries prefer to strengthen regional solutions without foreign interference. This approach focuses on multilateral cooperation frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) — institutions that have emerged as key regional players in Afghanistan’s security and economic affairs.

Finally, 16 percent of participants pointed to the failure of U.S. policies in managing Afghanistan crisis as the main reason for opposing Washington’s return. From this perspective, chronic instability, the collapse of state institutions, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis after two decades of U.S. presence have undermined the legitimacy of any renewed American involvement.

Overall, the survey data suggest that opposition to the U.S. return is not merely political in nature. Rather, it reflects a broader geopolitical transition toward a new regional order — one led by the Eastern bloc of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran — seeking to end the unipolar era and redefine Afghanistan’s role in the security landscape of Eurasia.