Central Asia Shifts Afghanistan Policy from Reform to Containment

DID Press: A US magazine argues Central Asian countries, after failing to influence the Taliban, have shifted their approach toward Afghanistan—from attempting internal reform to focusing on containment of instability and mitigating its consequences.

According to National Interest, two decades of regional diplomacy assumed that foreign engagement could stabilize Afghanistan and enable neighboring states to cooperate politically, economically, and in security matters. That assumption has now collapsed, and success metrics have been replaced by limited, practical measures.

Neighboring countries are now prioritizing border and economic threat reduction rather than internal reform. Measures include preventing cross-border terrorist attacks, managing refugee flows, curbing drug trafficking, and mitigating economic fallout from Afghan instability.

Pakistan, despite maintaining communication channels with the Taliban, continues to face border security threats and focuses largely on fortified borders and coercive measures. Iran has adopted a defensive, restrictive approach due to border pressures, refugee flows, and disputes over water resources.

China and Russia, while benefiting from the withdrawal of Western forces, have avoided major economic or political commitments, focusing instead on preventing Afghanistan from becoming a source of transnational threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking.

Central Asian republics have abandoned initial optimism about trade corridors and energy development, prioritizing border security, limited trade, and coordination with major powers.

The National Interest warns that while this containment strategy may reduce short-term risks, it offers little prospect for sustainable Afghanistan stability, potentially turning instability into a long-term condition where risk management replaces efforts to address the root causes of the crisis.