DID Press: Iraq’s Ministry of Defense announced on January 17 that U.S. and coalition forces have vacated Ain al-Asad airbase in Anbar province, transferring full control to the Iraqi military. The move is part of a Baghdad–Washington agreement to reduce U.S. military presence in Iraq, citing diminished ISIS threats and the Iraqi government’s emphasis on national security being managed by domestic forces.
However, the withdrawal coincides with a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) operation to transfer ISIS detainees from northeastern Syria to Iraq. On January 21–22, approximately 150 prisoners were moved from Kurdish-run detention centers in Hasakah, with plans to eventually transfer up to 7,000 detainees. The fact that CENTCOM announced the operation before Iraqi authorities confirmed it has raised questions about coordination and respect for Iraq’s sovereignty.
Baghdad maintains that accepting the detainees is necessary for national security, particularly given the risk of mass prison breaks in northeastern Syria, similar to the al-Shaddadi incident. U.S. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio suggested the transfers follow a plan endorsed by Iraq’s government, fueling speculation that some Iraqi politicians aim to align with Washington’s expectations.
Concerns remain over Iraq’s capacity to manage such a large number of detainees. Delays in judicial processing or inadequate prison infrastructure could allow some to become a serious internal security threat. The simultaneous U.S. withdrawal and arrival of thousands of ISIS prisoners recalls the 2012 U.S. exit during Nouri al-Maliki’s tenure, which preceded a resurgence of terrorist activity and the emergence of ISIS. Analysts warn that Iraq may face a similar scenario, compounded by potential regional tensions involving Iran and other resistance groups.