DID Press: Italian analyst Emanuele Scimia argues that Donald Trump is pursuing a strategy of indirect pressure to counter China, rather than engaging Beijing in direct confrontation. The approach aims to slow China’s rise by tightening constraints on its energy suppliers, trade partners, and strategic allies.
According to Scimia, Trump has effectively launched a geopolitical war of attrition against China, designed to disrupt its economic growth and reduce Beijing’s global strategic flexibility. While this strategy has distanced some U.S. allies—and even rivals—from Washington, Scimia notes it has succeeded in one key respect: pushing Chinese President Xi Jinping onto the defensive.
Iran at the Center of U.S.–China Rivalry
Scimia identifies Iran as a focal point of this competition. He argues that the recent escalation of pressure by Trump on Tehran—ranging from sweeping sanctions to military threats—is part of a broader effort to restrict China’s access to West Asian energy resources.
Any large-scale military operation against Iran could disrupt regional oil and gas exports to China, exports that form the backbone of Beijing’s energy security.
West Asian Energy and China’s Security
Roughly half of China’s oil imports come from West Asia. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are among Beijing’s largest oil suppliers, while Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are major exporters of liquefied natural gas to China. Most of these shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where any escalation could have immediate consequences for the Chinese economy.
The analysis concludes that U.S.–China rivalry extends far beyond trade or technology, with energy geopolitics—and Iran’s role within it—emerging as a central axis of the strategic competition.