Is Islamabad seeking to rearrange power in Afghanistan?
DID Press: Islamabad seeks to weaken the operational capabilities of the Taliban and limit their strategic capacity, and it is not merely about confronting immediate security threats.
Recent Pakistani attacks on Taliban positions and infrastructure in Afghanistan, which according to Islamabad officials targeted hundreds of militant forces, indicate that the country has seriously changed its approach toward the Taliban. Previously, Islamabad’s strategy mainly focused on confronting Pakistani militant groups in Afghan territory, but recent developments suggest that Pakistan’s objectives may go beyond fighting terrorism and move towards power rearrangement and a new balance in Afghanistan.
One of the most important signs of Pakistan’s changing approach is the scale and intensity of the country’s military operations. Air and ground attacks against Taliban military centers in the eastern and southern provinces of Afghanistan, including Kabul, Kandahar, and Zabul, are unprecedented examples in the history of relations between the two countries. These actions have not only targeted Pakistani militants’ objectives but also struck key infrastructure and Taliban weapons depots. This indicates that Islamabad seeks to weaken the operational capabilities of the Taliban and limit their strategic capacity, and it is not merely about confronting immediate security threats.
The confirmation of this hypothesis can also be observed in the reaction of the international community. Western countries, including the United States and the European Union, as well as some regional countries such as China and Turkey, have in a way considered Pakistan’s actions as part of the fight against terrorism to be legitimate and have supported them. This support indicates that Islamabad has been able to isolate the Taliban and gain a kind of international legitimacy to exert greater pressure on them. Despite international warnings, the Taliban have not been able to offer a solution to reduce Pakistan’s concerns, and as a result, Islamabad’s operations have continued without major obstacles.
From a strategic perspective, a shift in Pakistan’s approach could have broader implications for the balance of power in Afghanistan. The reduction of the Taliban’s military capabilities, the limitation of their weapons stockpiles, and the continuous pressure on their infrastructure provide opportunities for anti-Taliban factions. Some countries might also exploit this power vacuum, although Islamabad’s direct actions in support of the opposition have not yet become apparent. However, evidence indicates that Pakistan has initiated contacts and negotiations with the Resistance Front and other anti-Taliban factions; an action that could lay the groundwork for political reorganization or even regime change in the long term.
In addition to military pressure, Pakistan’s diplomatic approach is also noteworthy. Islamabad has apparently abandoned negotiation and mediation and focused all its attention on military operations and strategic pressure. The Taliban, while trying to reduce pressure through Gulf countries, China, and Russia, have been met with a cold and indifferent response from Pakistan. This indicates that with its new doctrine, Islamabad not only has no intention of retreating but is likely pursuing long-term political and security objectives beyond countering terrorism.
Given these developments, the scenarios ahead are varied. One of the most likely scenarios is the continuation of military pressure to create internal divisions among the Taliban and limited support for groups that are willing to cooperate with Islamabad. Another scenario is the reorganization of power at the political and strategic level in Afghanistan, which could gradually displace the Taliban from their established position and turn opposition currents into serious actors.
Overall, the analysis of recent developments shows that Islamabad, through extensive operations and strategic pressures, has gone beyond merely combating terrorism and is seeking to reorganize power and change the political and military balance in Afghanistan. The consequences of this policy are significant not only for the Taliban but also for the entire region and South Asia’s security equations, and they require careful and ongoing examination.