DID Press: A military analyst warned that the recent decline in the number of ballistic missiles fired by Iran does not indicate improving conditions for the United States and its allies, arguing instead that the situation may be worsening as drone attacks increase.
According to an assessment by military analyst Song Hoon Lee, developments during the past eight days of fighting show a shift in Iran’s operational strategy. “Contrary to public perception, the eighth day has not improved the situation; it has become worse,” he said.
Fewer Missiles, More Drones
Data cited in the analysis indicate that the number of Iranian ballistic missiles launched fell from around 350 on the first day to about 15 by the eighth day. However, drone operations have followed the opposite trend. After launching 294 drones on the first day and 541 on the second day, the number of drone attacks has reportedly continued to increase.
Lee argued that the shift is deliberate. “Iran is conserving its missile stockpiles and instead deploying low-cost drones,” he said, estimating that each drone costs about $20,000 to produce.
Economic Warfare
The analyst said the cost of intercepting a single drone for the United States and its allies can range between $1 million and $2 million, a disparity he believes significantly alters the cost-benefit balance in Iran’s favor.
“Iran can produce these drones in large numbers, while the defense budgets of the United States and its partners face limitations,” Lee said, describing the strategy as a form of economic attrition rather than purely conventional warfare.
He warned that continued drone operations could lead to rapid depletion of defensive interceptor stocks, rising daily war costs, a wider range of attacks targeting cities, and increasing pressure on defense budgets.
Warnings About the Coming Weeks
Lee predicted that if the current trend continues, U.S. defensive stockpiles could face serious shortages by the fifteenth day of sustained operations and that by the thirtieth day, “the skies could effectively remain unprotected.”
“The war has only just begun,” he concluded. “The worst days may still lie ahead.”