ICG Warns Pak-Afghan Conflict Risks Escalation Despite Eid Truce

DID Press: International Crisis Group has warned that tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan remain volatile despite the continuation of a temporary ceasefire during Eid al-Fitr, noting that the risk of renewed clashes persists.

In its latest report, the organization stated that militant groups—including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K)—remain active despite years of military operations, exploiting porous borders between the two countries to sustain their activities.

The report emphasized that Islamabad’s position holding Afghanistan fully responsible for TTP attacks overlooks the complex nature of the conflict environment. Analysts noted that evolving asymmetric warfare tactics, particularly the growing use of drones by armed groups, could significantly expand the scale of hostilities if tensions intensify.

The organization also warned that continued civilian casualties on both sides of the border could trigger retaliatory strikes and create a dangerous cycle of violence. It urged both governments to exercise restraint and return to diplomatic dialogue to prevent further escalation.

According to the assessment, the immediate and complete suppression of TTP by the Afghan authorities—led by the Taliban—is unlikely, given the group’s decentralized structure and its historical ties with Taliban networks. Heavy pressure on the group, the report added, could push some fighters toward ISIS-K.

The Crisis Group concluded that prolonged conflict would harm both Afghanistan and Pakistan, potentially leading to deeper instability, economic damage, population displacement, and increased international isolation for Afghanistan.