DID Press: Professor Dr. Erhan Afyoncu, a prominent historian and president of the National Defense University of Turkey, analyzed the historical background of Iran’s wars during the program “What’s Happening?” on CNN Türk. He assessed the current military confrontation involving the United States and Israel with Iran, emphasizing that any ground operation or occupation of Iranian islands would be doomed to failure from both historical and geographical perspectives.
Afyoncu noted that Iran’s tradition of state governance has deep historical continuity. He stated that from 1055 AD for nearly 900 years, the country was ruled by Turkic-origin dynasties such as the Seljuk Empire, Aq Qoyunlu, Kara Koyunlu, Safavid dynasty, Afsharid dynasty, and Qajar dynasty.
According to him, the Safavids—who had Turkic roots—formalized Shi’a Islam in Iran. This historical combination of Turkic identity, Persian culture, and Shi’a religion created a durable national identity. He added that even with changes in the ethnicity of rulers or shifts in the political system, including the Iranian Revolution, “the grand understanding of statecraft in Iran has remained constant, and its state-centered structure has not collapsed.”
Reviewing the wars between Iran and the Ottoman Empire, the historian explained that despite numerous battlefield victories, the Ottomans were never able to retain territories captured inside Iran. He recalled that the city of Tabriz fell into Ottoman hands nine times, yet popular resistance, harsh geography, and disrupted supply lines prevented the consolidation of long-term control.
Afyoncu referred to the Battle of Chaldiran, noting that after this defeat, the Safavids—similar to European powers following the Battle of Mohács—recognized that direct confrontation with the Ottoman army would lead to defeat. As a result, Iran systematically adopted an attrition warfare strategy: drawing the enemy deep into its territory, conducting tactical withdrawals, destroying resources, blocking wells, and imposing logistical pressure on invading forces. He stressed that “Iran’s harsh mountainous geography has historically been its greatest ally.”
The president of Turkey’s National Defence University compared this historical experience to modern threats, stating that Iran would employ the same strategy against any invading force. He argued that a ground operation involving 3,000 to 5,000 troops in Iran would be impossible. He added that even the occupation of an island such as Kharg Island would turn into an attritional quagmire, as Iran is capable of immobilizing occupying forces within its complex terrain.
Afyoncu concluded that Iran’s history demonstrates a consistent pattern: in the face of foreign occupation attempts, the country has relied on geography, national identity, and attrition strategy to maintain the upper hand.