DID Press: A new analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy highlights deep strategic uncertainty in Washington during the ongoing “Ramadan War,” following the assassination of Iran’s leader.
In the commentary, analyst Simon Henderson describes the early response in Washington, D.C. as marked by political disorientation, arguing that the governing style of Donald Trump contributed to the confusion. The assassination of Ali Khamenei shocked not only Iran but also the global political landscape, raising immediate questions about what a post-attack Iran would look like and what political system might emerge—questions that remained largely unanswered.
Trump reportedly predicted the war might last four to five weeks, but analysis cited by The Wall Street Journal warned that U.S. and allied anti-missile stockpiles could be depleted within days, suggesting the conflict’s trajectory might shift much sooner than expected.
Further uncertainty followed remarks by Marco Rubio, who indicated that the United States launched its attack partly because it believed Israel would strike Iran regardless. The comment raised questions about why Washington moved first rather than allowing Israel to act independently.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump’s “swift and decisive action” in an interview with Fox News, but also expressed support for a democratically elected government in Iran, a stance seen as diverging from the more limited strategic objectives suggested by the Trump administration.
In the following days, Washington’s priorities appeared to shift toward completing military operations, restoring oil flows and air traffic, and containing anti-American backlash. Violent protests outside U.S. embassies and even a drone attack on the American embassy in Riyadh were reported.
Henderson also noted that Iran’s missile arsenal remains largely intact, with weapons capable of striking targets with remarkable precision. A missile strike on Beit Shemesh that killed nine people and damaged several buildings illustrated this capability. The city lies near the Sdot Micha Airbase, a site widely believed to house Israel’s Jericho nuclear-capable missiles, a factor that analysts say heightens fears of potential nuclear escalation in the conflict.
International Desk | DID News Agency