Positive Change in Afghanistan Is Possible, but Gradual, Fragile and Homegrown
DID Press: Despite severe restrictions, analytical reporting by The Diplomat emphasizes that processes of social adaptation, local resilience, and gradual transformation are emerging in Afghanistan, potentially charting a path for positive change.
Four years after the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan faces a fundamental paradox. For the outside world, the government’s restrictions—particularly on women’s rights and civil liberties—create the perception that meaningful positive change is impossible without foreign intervention.
However, according to The Diplomat, subtle but significant changes are occurring within Afghan society, driven by demographic pressures, local resistance, and social adaptations. The publication describes Afghanistan’s entry into a “new phase” in 2025 as shaped less by foreign intervention and more by internal dynamics, outlining five key pillars for sustainable change:
Urbanization: With an annual urban population growth rate of 4 percent—one of the fastest globally—urban life exposes people to diverse ideas and increases social tolerance. Small and medium-sized cities could gradually become important economic centers.
Economy: Approximately 80 percent of Afghans work in agriculture and livestock, while this sector contributes only one-third of GDP. A gradual shift toward income-generating activities such as trade, small-scale production, and services is necessary, with vocational training providing employment opportunities in rural areas.
Religious Reform: Most religious schools operate under strict Taliban interpretations. Scholarships and exchange programs for clerics and madrasa students could gradually broaden religious discourse.
Literacy and Education: Expanding literacy programs and investing in educational infrastructure strengthens community participation and empowerment.
Access to Information: Digital connectivity brings information, ideas, and opportunities that can gradually reshape perspectives.
Nonetheless, a large part of Afghanistan remains pre-industrial, with limited mobility, scarce opportunities for women, and heavy reliance on traditional agriculture.
The Diplomat warns that expecting rapid transformation under these conditions is unrealistic without addressing fundamental needs such as education, literacy, and access to information.
In conclusion, the publication wrote: “Supporting change from within Afghanistan requires patience, stability, and a genuine understanding of its social foundations. Change may not come through sweeping reforms, but through gradual, cumulative shifts over time. Progress will be fragile, uneven, and often indirect—but possible.”
It adds that “No transformation will succeed without the participation of women. Sustainable progress occurs only when citizens themselves, with support but without replacement by international actors, have the capacity and confidence to define their own future.”