DID Press: Renowned geopolitical analyst Robert Kaplan has warned that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could trap Washington in a “medium war,” similar to historical conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Drawing on the concept first outlined by military historian James Stokesbury, Kaplan describes medium wars as conflicts “large enough to cause significant destruction and bloodshed, but too limited to mobilize the entire domestic front.” Such wars often begin with misperceptions about the targeted country, lack clear objectives, and gradually spiral beyond political control.
Kaplan cautioned that if Iran resists U.S. pressure and airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel destabilize the region, the U.S. could inadvertently enter a protracted conflict with uncertain outcomes. He emphasized that the gap between overthrowing an existing order and establishing a stable new one could be wide, warning of potential power vacuums and regional chaos.
Comparing with other scenarios, Kaplan noted that a conflict in the Western Pacific, particularly involving China and Taiwan, would carry far greater economic and geopolitical risks than a Middle East confrontation, threatening global supply chains, financial markets, and critical industries like semiconductors.
He highlighted “false pride” or emotional reactions to perceived national humiliation as a key risk factor in escalating limited operations into major bloodshed, citing Fallujah 2004 as an example. Kaplan urged U.S. leaders to exercise restraint and adhere to principles similar to the “Powell Doctrine”: entering war only with clear objectives, public support, decisive force, and a defined exit strategy. Failure to do so, he warns, could deepen divides between the public and governing elites and gradually erode U.S. political structures.