ICG: Afghanistan Faces Multiple Crises Five Years Into Taliban Rule
DID Press: International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned that Afghanistan remains under pressure from multiple, overlapping crises five years into Taliban rule, citing declining foreign aid, extensive restrictions on women and girls, a closed political system, economic pressures, armed opposition groups and growing tensions with Pakistan as major challenges.
According to the report, Taliban policies toward women and girls remain one of the main obstacles to Afghanistan’s engagement with the international community. Afghanistan is described as the only country where formal education for girls beyond primary school remains suspended, while restrictions also affect women’s employment, travel and social activities.
The ICG said these restrictions have consequences beyond the social sphere, affecting Afghanistan’s political relations with the international community and limiting economic cooperation and development assistance.Closed Political System and Limited International EngagementThe organization said Afghanistan’s political structure remains dominated by Taliban members, while the international community continues to call for broader participation by ethnic and political groups in the country’s governance.
The presence of several senior Taliban officials on UN sanctions lists was also identified as a factor complicating Afghanistan’s official, economic and banking relations with the international community. As a result, Afghanistan has had limited participation in some international forums and fewer opportunities for economic cooperation.Tensions with PakistanRelations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are another major focus of the report. Islamabad claims that activities by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have increased from Afghan territory, raising security concerns along the border.
Amid heightened tensions, restrictions have been imposed on bilateral trade, the return of Afghan migrants has accelerated, and border clashes and airstrikes have also been reported.The ICG warned that continued tensions could affect trade, transit routes and security in Afghanistan’s border areas.Economy Under PressureThe report said Afghanistan’s economy faces simultaneous pressures, including declining foreign aid, banking restrictions, sanctions and concerns among international financial institutions about conducting business with the country.
Rising prices of essential goods and growing food insecurity have left millions dependent on humanitarian assistance. The report also cited reduced international attention to Afghanistan amid other crises, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and developments involving Iran, as factors contributing to declining aid.Afghanistan’s private sector is also facing significant restrictions because of limited access to the global financial system and concerns among international banks and financial institutions about working with the country, making domestic and foreign investors more cautious.
Mining: Revenue Alongside Local DisputesThe ICG described mining, particularly in northern Afghanistan, as an important source of revenue. According to the organization, foreign investors and traders close to the Taliban have contributed to relative growth in the sector, while disputes over local communities’ share of mining revenues and resource management have also increased.In some cases, disagreements have reportedly emerged between central Taliban authorities and local commanders over the management of natural resources.
The organization warned that increased investment in mining, without transparent mechanisms and local community participation, could fuel economic and ethnic tensions.Northern Afghanistan: Area of Armed Opposition ActivityThe report identified northern Afghanistan, particularly Badakhshan, as one of the country’s sensitive areas. It said groups including the National Resistance Front, Afghanistan Freedom Front and Islamic State-Khorasan Province are active in the region.
In July, a little-known armed group reportedly took control of the administrative center of Yiftal-e Payin district in Badakhshan for several hours. According to the report, it was the first reported instance since 2021 of an armed group taking control of a Taliban administrative center.
However, the ICG said opposition groups currently do not pose a serious threat to the Taliban’s control over Afghanistan as a whole, although their activities indicate the existence of local grievances and security gaps in parts of the north.A Fragile FutureThe ICG concluded that continued domestic restrictions, political exclusion, economic difficulties, declining foreign aid, local disputes and tensions with Pakistan could keep Afghanistan in a fragile condition.The organization identified increased regional and international engagement, reduced domestic tensions, a reassessment of social policies and the creation of more participatory mechanisms in governance as important factors in addressing the country’s current challenges.
The report said Afghanistan’s outlook will largely depend on how these challenges are managed and the extent to which confidence can be built both inside and outside the country.