From Kabul to Yemen: When a Government Collapses From Within
DID Press: Rapid advances by Ansar Allah in Yemen and reports of the fall of territory and the disruption of strategic routes have prompted comparisons with the collapse of Afghanistan’s republic to the Taliban.
In Afghanistan, the republic appeared to have an army, military equipment, foreign support and state institutions. In its final days, however, it had already lost a significant part of its effective power. Corruption, political divisions, public distrust, ethnic divisions, poor management and declining morale among security forces caused cities to fall far more rapidly than expected. Kabul ultimately fell after the political structure and the will to defend the system had effectively collapsed.
A similar pattern could emerge in Yemen if recent reports about Ansar Allah’s advances and the capture of strategic areas prove accurate. In a war, the decisive issue is not simply whether an important city is captured, but why its defenders are no longer able or willing to mount effective resistance. The disruption of supply lines, the loss of key positions and the collapse of trust between civilians and defending forces can turn the fall of one area into a chain reaction.
The Main Similarity
The Afghan republic collapsed when the Taliban were able to turn divisions between the government and the public, together with the system’s internal weaknesses, into a military victory. In Yemen, if Ansar Allah is able to simultaneously exploit social discontent, maintain cohesion among its forces and capitalize on weaknesses and divisions among its opponents, military advances could likewise lead to the rapid collapse of opposing positions.
The experience of Kabul and developments in Yemen therefore highlight a broader lesson: no government is invulnerable simply because it possesses an army, weapons, financial resources and foreign support. When public trust disappears, corruption and discrimination spread, leaders become divided and security forces lose the motivation to defend the system, a collapse that once appeared impossible can occur within days.
The Larger Lesson
Governments do not necessarily collapse on the day they formally fall; the real process of collapse begins when people are no longer willing to bear the cost of preserving the government.
Afghanistan offers a historical warning, while developments in Yemen once again highlight the importance of public trust, justice, legitimacy and internal cohesion as foundations of state power. Military strength and foreign support, without public backing and domestic legitimacy, may only delay a collapse rather than prevent it.
Systems that rely more heavily on foreign support than on the will and consent of their people, and that stand against public demands, may eventually face crises of legitimacy and internal breakdown.
The experience of Afghanistan and developments in Yemen carry a clear message: power without roots among the people may appear strong from the outside, but can prove highly fragile when a crisis strikes.
By Dr. Abdul Rauf Tawana | DID News Agency