DID Press: Bab al-Mandab Strait has once again become a major focal point for global trade amid escalating fighting in Yemen. Any disruption to the waterway, which serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea and a key link between Europe and Asia, could affect not only regional countries but also major global economies and international supply chains. International estimates indicate that about 15% of global maritime trade passes through the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal route.
Countries’ Dependence on Bab al-Mandab
A study conducted in 2025 on the consequences of disruptions to critical waterways shows that more than 12 countries rely on the Red Sea route for more than half of their maritime trade by value.
According to figures from the study, Eritrea, at 87%, Djibouti, at 78%, Sudan, at 67%, South Sudan, at 65%, and Chad, at 61%, are among the countries whose trade is most dependent on this route. Yemen’s share is estimated at about 54%.
The inclusion of South Sudan and Chad, despite their lack of coastlines, is because the calculation is not limited to imports and exports directly passing through domestic ports. It also includes trade dependent on connected maritime routes.
China, India and the United States
The importance of Bab al-Mandab is not limited to countries bordering the Red Sea. According to data cited in the report, around $520 billion of China’s maritime trade, $243 billion of India’s maritime trade and $226 billion of U.S. maritime trade pass through this route annually. The value of maritime trade dependent on the route is estimated at about $208 billion for Germany and $190 billion for the United Kingdom.
As a result, a prolonged disruption in Bab al-Mandab could increase transportation, insurance and shipping costs, as well as the time required to move goods between Asia and Europe. The International Monetary Fund has previously reported that insecurity in the Red Sea following attacks on commercial vessels sharply increased the cost of transporting a 40-foot container from China to the Mediterranean.
Significant Decline in Vessel Traffic
Data from IMF PortWatch show that vessel traffic through Bab al-Mandab remains below pre-crisis levels. On September 20, 2026, only 26 vessels passed through the strait, while the 2025 average was about 33.5 vessels per day. The seven-day average ending September 20 also fell to 24.7 vessels per day.
The decline, together with security threats, has prompted shipping companies to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope, a route that can significantly increase travel time between Asia and Europe.
Cost of a Prolonged Disruption
The study cited in the report estimates that a 30-day blockade of Bab al-Mandab could cause about $30 billion in economic losses, while a 45-day disruption could raise the figure to approximately $40 billion. Increased fuel consumption, transportation costs and insurance premiums are cited as major factors behind these losses.
The significance of Bab al-Mandab becomes even clearer when the strait is considered alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Both waterways have been affected by regional tensions in recent months, and simultaneous disruption to the two routes could place additional pressure on global energy and trade routes.
Recent reports also indicate that traffic through Bab al-Mandab remains below previous averages.
From this perspective, the Bab al-Mandab crisis is not merely a dispute between the parties involved in Yemen. The strait is part of a vital chain of global trade, and the longer insecurity persists, the more its economic costs could extend beyond the Red Sea coast to global markets, supply chains and economies dependent on maritime trade.