DID Press: British magazine The Economist has warned that despite recent price fluctuations and a temporary decline in oil prices following ceasefire announcements, the global energy market is heading toward a deep and potentially unprecedented crisis. Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of hundreds of millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil from supply, and reduced global Liquefied Natural Gas availability are pushing the world toward severe shortages and sharp price surges.
According to the report, the world has lost approximately 550 million barrels of Persian Gulf oil in recent weeks—equivalent to nearly 2 percent of total annual global oil production—an amount capable of causing lasting disruption to global supply structures.
The magazine noted that for every month the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supplies of liquefied natural gas will also decline significantly, placing additional pressure on energy markets and raising the risk of widespread shortages, steep price increases, and financial instability.
The report further highlighted the market’s extreme sensitivity, noting that after Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait was “fully open,” Brent Crude prices fell by around 10 percent on April 17. However, only hours later, renewed closure of the Strait triggered a rebound of roughly 5 percent in the next trading session—an indication of unprecedented fragility in global energy markets.
According to The Economist, Asia is expected to be the first region to feel the pressure of oil shortages, as the majority of Persian Gulf exports are directed toward Asian refineries. Several major refineries in East Asia have reportedly reduced operating rates due to limited crude supply, while spot prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel continue to rise across regional markets.
The magazine concluded that the apparent stability in oil prices following the Iran–United States ceasefire is “deceptive,” warning that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, the global energy market will continue moving toward gradual decline.