DID Press: Global oil demand is expected to continue increasing through 2050, despite the expansion of renewable energy, according to OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook, which projects a markedly different trajectory from forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
OPEC said global energy demand will rise from the equivalent of 308 million barrels of oil per day in 2024 to 378 million barrels per day by 2050, representing cumulative growth of 23% and an average annual increase of around 0.8%.
The organization expects nearly all future demand growth to come from non-OECD economies, particularly India, other Asian countries, Africa, and the Middle East, driven by population growth, industrialization, and expanding economies.
According to the report, global oil demand is projected to increase by approximately 9.6 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030. That outlook contrasts with the IEA’s forecast, which expects oil demand to level off and approach its peak by the end of this decade.
While OPEC expects oil’s share of the global energy mix to decline slightly—from about 31% in 2024 to just under 30% by 2050—it stressed that this reflects the rapid growth of total energy demand rather than a reduction in oil consumption.
The report also projects that oil and natural gas together will continue to account for more than half of global energy consumption through 2050, underscoring the continued importance of fossil fuels during the global energy transition.