Crisis Group Warns of Rising Unrest in Northern Afghanistan

DID Press: International Crisis Group has warned that unrest and tensions are increasing in northern Afghanistan, particularly in Badakhshan, although armed opposition groups do not currently pose a serious threat to Taliban control.

According to the group’s latest analysis, increased activity by armed opposition groups, divisions among Taliban commanders, discontent over the ban on poppy cultivation, and competition over mining resources and smuggling routes are among the main drivers of growing tensions in northern Afghanistan.

The report said the capture of a district by the Sepah-e-Mihan group does not by itself constitute a major threat to the Taliban, but could boost the morale of opposition forces. In Badakhshan, attacks by the Afghanistan Freedom Front, the National Resistance Front and Islamic State Khorasan have also been reported.

The Crisis Group identified restrictions on women and girls, economic difficulties, international isolation, exclusive governance and tensions with Pakistan as major challenges facing the Taliban. It said the Taliban’s policies toward women remain a significant factor contributing to Afghanistan’s isolation.

The report also described strained relations between the Taliban and Pakistan as Afghanistan’s most immediate foreign-policy challenge. Disputes over the activities of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), border clashes and disruptions to bilateral trade have further intensified tensions between the two sides.

The Crisis Group concluded that the Taliban continue to maintain firm control over Afghanistan, but the country’s future remains uncertain. It called on the Taliban to address local grievances, ease restrictions on women and girls, and adopt a more pragmatic approach in relations with regional countries and the international community.